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Risk analysis in maritime transportation : principles, frameworks and evaluation

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.advisor Kujala, Pentti, Prof., Aalto University, Department of Applied Mechanics, Finland
dc.contributor.advisor Montewka, Jakub, Dr., Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, Finland
dc.contributor.author Goerlandt, Floris
dc.date.accessioned 2015-09-02T09:02:42Z
dc.date.available 2015-09-02T09:02:42Z
dc.date.issued 2015
dc.identifier.isbn 978-952-60-6314-0 (electronic)
dc.identifier.isbn 978-952-60-6313-3 (printed)
dc.identifier.issn 1799-4942 (electronic)
dc.identifier.issn 1799-4934 (printed)
dc.identifier.issn 1799-4934 (ISSN-L)
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/17569
dc.description.abstract Risk analyses are widely used tools for supporting decision making. Nonetheless, many criticisms have been raised against the discipline of risk analysis, e.g. technical analyses having a narrow focus, poorly examined claims of the ability of accurately measuring risk and lack of standards for quality assurance and risk analysis evaluation. In response to these criticisms, calls have been made for increased focus on these and other foundational issues, both in the general risk analysis discipline and in the various application areas. This thesis answers these calls for research addressing the underlying concepts and principles of risk analyses, which are approached through applications focusing on the accidental risk of maritime transportation. Focusing first on a set of foundational issues underlying waterway risk analyses, it is established that many different definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches co-exist in the application area. Through two case studies of reliability of maritime risk models, previous research claiming that risk models provide unreliable decision support, are confirmed for some maritime applications, thus confirming the need for focusing on risk related principles. Subsequently, a set of principles is presented, addressing concepts and terminology, risk and prediction, risk model use and the consideration of uncertainty and bias. A framework is introduced to communicate the scientific principles adhered to in a specific risk analysis. Following this, the principles are translated in two risk analysis frameworks: one for policy-oriented and one for operational risk analysis; the first leading to a quantitative and the second to a qualitative risk characterization. In both, risk is understood as a concept referring to the possible but uncertain occurrence of a situation where something of human value is at stake. Risk models are used as putting forward an argument based on available evidence, as a tool for communication between stakeholders and as a platform for thinking. Uncertainties and value-laden biases are assessed, and some tools for communicating these are introduced. Both frameworks are illustrated by extensive case studies. The first concerns accidental risk of oil spills from tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland. The second focuses on a risk-informed ship-ship collision alert system. A final issue addressed in the thesis concerns the evaluation of a risk analysis, i.e. principles and criteria for establishing credibility. An integrated framework for this is developed, addressing model use, model plausibility, value-related validity and process-related validity. Specific evaluation criteria are proposed and a selection of these is applied in the presented case studies. en
dc.format.extent 73 + app. 94
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Aalto University en
dc.publisher Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.relation.ispartofseries Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 107/2015
dc.relation.haspart [Publication 1]: Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub. 2015. Maritime transportation risk analysis: review and analysis in light of some foundational issues. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, volume 138, pages 115-134. ISSN 0951-8320. DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2015.01.025
dc.relation.haspart [Publication 2]: Goerlandt, Floris; Kujala, Pentti. 2014. On the reliability and validity of ship-ship collision risk analysis in light of different perspectives on risk. Safety Science, volume 62, pages 348-365. ISSN 0925-7535. DOI 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.09.010
dc.relation.haspart [Publication 3]: Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub. 2015. A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: a case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship-ship collision. Safety Science, volume 76, pages 42-66. ISSN 0925-7535. DOI 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.009
dc.relation.haspart [Publication 4]: Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti. 2015. A risk-informed ship collision alert system: framework and application. Safety Science, volume 77, pages 182-204. ISSN 0925-7535. DOI 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.03.015
dc.subject.other Marine engineering en
dc.subject.other Safety technology en
dc.title Risk analysis in maritime transportation : principles, frameworks and evaluation en
dc.type G5 Artikkeliväitöskirja fi
dc.contributor.school Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu fi
dc.contributor.school School of Engineering en
dc.contributor.department Sovelletun mekaniikan laitos fi
dc.contributor.department Department of Applied Mechanics en
dc.subject.keyword risk analysis en
dc.subject.keyword foundational issues en
dc.subject.keyword waterway risk en
dc.subject.keyword collision alert system en
dc.identifier.urn URN:ISBN:978-952-60-6314-0
dc.type.dcmitype text en
dc.type.ontasot Doctoral dissertation (article-based) en
dc.type.ontasot Väitöskirja (artikkeli) fi
dc.contributor.supervisor Kujala, Pentti, Prof., Aalto University, Department of Applied Mechanics, Finland
dc.opn Aven, Terje, Prof., University of Stavanger, Norway
dc.contributor.lab Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety en
dc.rev Ale, Bernardus Johannes Maria, Prof. Emer., Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands
dc.rev Qu, Xiaobo, Dr., Griffith University, Australia
dc.date.defence 2015-10-30
local.aalto.digifolder Aalto_65435
local.aalto.formfolder 2015_09_02_klo_09_27
local.aalto.archive yes
local.aalto.digiauth ask

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